It had already been a rough year for supply management. Maxime Bernier, in his bid to become the next leader of the federal Conservatives, made phasing out the system one of the pillars of his campaign. Ending it would mean big savings for consumers at the grocery store, the Quebec MP claimed.
A chorus of pundits followed with columns supporting his pledge. When U.S. President Donald Trump called the system unfair, Bernier welcomed his comments. “Mr. President, you’re right: Supply management is unfair,” began an op-ed he wrote for The Globe and Mail.
Affected industries breathed a sigh of relief when Andrew Scheer, a staunch supporter of fair farm pricing, edged out Bernier to lead the party. Many say it was the efforts of supply managed farmers that did him in.
But then in October during NAFTA renegotiations the U.S. dropped a bombshell. The Americans demanded Canada phase out supply management for dairy, poultry and eggs over 10 years. Canadian negotiators were reportedly caught off guard. While President Trump had criticized the system, most thought the U.S. would settle for greater access to these markets.
What to make of it? Mike Dungate, Chicken Farmers of Canada’s executive director, wonders if it’s simply a negotiating tactic. “Is it just designed to blame Canada and Mexico and walk away from NAFTA,” he ponders, “or is it outrageous enough to get us to bite and move the yardstick across the broader negotiation?” Another option Dungate suggests is that President Trump is just posturing for his base.
Robin Horel, president of the Canadian Poultry & Egg Processors Council, stresses that scrapping the system is against the American poultry industry’s own interests. He says, depending on the sector, anywhere from five to 20 per cent of his members’ annual production is imported from U.S. businesses.
“They don’t want to dismantle poultry supply management – it gives them a very good market to sell into,” Horel says. “They don’t want to kill the goose that laid the golden egg.” Indeed, while The Donald loves to rail against trade imbalances, the U.S. enjoys a healthy poultry surplus with Canada – $300 million for chicken alone.
It’s highly improbable that the Liberals will concede to this demand. Federal Agriculture Minister Lawrence MacAulay immediately dismissed it as “a non-starter”. Still, some suggest sacrificing supply management to gain concessions from the Americans in other sectors like softwood lumber. What’s more, an Angus Reid survey of Canadians found 45 per cent support using it as a bargaining chip in NAFTA renegotiations as a last resort.
In the unlikely event that Canada agrees to phase out supply management, what would change? Horel says it would mean the end of small, family run farms. “There’d be fewer, bigger farms – that would be the trade off,” he says. We asked numerous other experts to envision a world without supply management. Their responses, which you can read starting on page 34, together form a powerful case for keeping the system in tact for good.
However things unfold as NAFTA talks continue into next year, we’ll keep you updated, albeit with a fresh look. Indeed, we’re finally getting a makeover. Watch for the first redesigned issue in January, with exciting new features to boot. Until then, happy holidays!
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