High beef prices boost chicken demand, FCC says
February 19, 2026
By Canadian Poultry magazine
Strong protein demand supports margins, but avian flu and tight supplies could constrain early-year production.
A broiler chicken resting inside a barn. Photo Credit: Big Dutchman Talking Points
Soaring demand for protein-rich foods and record-high beef prices are expected to support Canada’s broiler and egg sectors in 2026, Farm Credit Canada (FCC) said in a new outlook released this week.
FCC reported that beef prices have climbed sharply since 2024, prompting more Canadians to choose chicken over ground beef as retail chicken prices rise at a slower pace than beef. Despite strong demand, farm-gate broiler prices are forecast to remain steady or edge slightly lower in Alberta and Ontario due to ample global feed supplies and lower input costs.
The report highlighted a disconnect between retail and farm-level pricing, with rising consumer prices not always translating into higher producer returns. Avian influenza remains the main risk for production, especially in B.C. and Ontario, though record chick placements in late 2025 could help maintain supply if outbreaks are contained.
- Beef price inflation has outpaced chicken, driving substitution among consumers
- Chicken imports are capped by trade agreements and unlikely to offset rising demand
- Egg production reached record highs in late 2025, but avian flu could affect supply
This story matters as it underscores how shifting consumer preferences, disease risks and trade limits will shape food prices and availability for Canadians in the year ahead.
Soaring consumer demand for protein-rich foods and historically high beef prices are expected to continue underpinning Canada’s broiler and egg sectors in 2026, according to a new outlook from Farm Credit Canada (FCC).
FCC’s 2026 broiler and egg outlook says beef prices – which have risen sharply over the past two years – are prompting more consumers to substitute chicken for ground beef, reversing a long-standing price advantage for beef. Since mid-2024, ground beef prices have reached or even exceeded the cost of chicken breast, accelerating demand for poultry products.
That demand is already showing up at the grocery store. Statistics cited by FCC show retail prices for fresh or frozen chicken rose 6.7 per cent in the final three months of 2025, compared with average increases of less than one per cent earlier in the year. While significant, those increases still lag well behind beef price inflation, which averaged 17.1 per cent over the same period.
Despite strong consumer demand, FCC expects farm-gate broiler prices to remain largely flat in 2026. With global feed supplies ample and feed costs remaining relatively low, the feed component of minimum live prices is forecast to see little upward pressure. FCC projects Alberta and Ontario farm-gate prices to edge slightly lower compared with 2025, but notes producer margins should remain positive due to strong demand and lower input costs.
The report also highlights a widening disconnect at times between retail and farm-level pricing. FCC economists note that rising consumer prices do not always correspond with higher producer returns, pointing to the influence of processing, distribution and retail margins on final food prices.
Avian influenza remains the key risk factor heading into 2026, particularly in British Columbia and Ontario – Canada’s third- and largest chicken-producing provinces, respectively. While active avian flu cases nationally declined between mid-December and late January, cases remained elevated in B.C. and increased in Ontario. FCC warns that early-year production could be constrained if outbreaks persist, potentially leading to under-filled quota in some regions.
Still, the supply outlook is not without positives. Chick placements surged in the second half of 2025, reaching record highs and running 5.6 per cent above the same period in 2024. If avian flu remains under control, FCC says those placements should support solid broiler production levels into early 2026.
Imports, meanwhile, are unlikely to provide much relief if demand continues to climb. Chicken imports account for about 11 per cent of domestic supply and are effectively capped by trade agreements, with fill rates under CPTPP and CUSMA already near 100 per cent. With per-capita frozen chicken stocks hovering near their lowest levels since 2020, FCC says any short-term demand spikes will need to be met primarily through domestic production.
On the egg side, FCC reports record-high production levels heading into 2026, driven by rising per-capita consumption and a significant increase in output during the second half of 2025. Eggs available for consumption jumped sharply year over year in the third quarter, even as population growth slowed. Whole egg stocks at the end of 2025 were nearly double typical December levels, signalling ample supply.
However, uncertainty remains around how avian flu may have affected the national layer flock over the winter. FCC notes that quota allocations could be adjusted early in the year depending on confirmed production capacity losses. Over the longer term, the outlook for egg consumption and production remains positive, supported by eggs’ affordability, versatility and nutritional value.
Overall, FCC concludes that strong protein demand, high beef prices and favourable feed costs position Canada’s broiler and egg sectors for a stable 2026. Meeting demand, the report notes, will hinge on maintaining flock health and consistent domestic production throughout the year.